Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

Annika Camehl and Malte Rieth

EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, 2023, vol. 15, issue 4, 217-248

Abstract: We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent of the average and historical variability in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. The policy trade-off associated to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 1 pp less economic mobility per day for 8 percent fewer deaths after 3 months. (JEL C43, H51, I12, I18, O15)

JEL-codes: C43 H51 I12 I18 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:espost:281207

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