Mozambican Tomato Markets: Structural Breaks and Their Impact on Price Transmission and Integration

Amir Ernesto Bazo, Julyerme Matheus Tonin and Alexandre Florindo Alves

EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, 2026, issue 74, 57-72

Abstract: This study analyzed the influence of structural breaks on the integration and transmission of tomato prices in the Maputo, Moamba, and Chókwè markets in southern Mozambique (2015-2019), using ANOVA, Tukey-HSD, ADF, DF-GLS, Franses-Haldrup for outliers, and Gregory-Hansen tests for cointegration with structural breaks. The results showed significant differences in average prices, as well as a strong interaction between the Chókwè, Moamba, and Maputo markets. The cointegration of the tomato price series across the analyzed markets and the identification of a break in February 2019 indicate a structural change in tomato prices in Chókwè and Moamba, highlighting their significant influence on price stability in Maputo. The ARDL-ECM (1,0,2,0,0,0) and ARDL-ECM (1,0,2) models suggest that long-term fluctuations in tomato prices in Maputo result from exogenous shocks from Chókwè and Moamba. Therefore, it is necessary to improve early-warning systems for extreme weather events and information sharing, as well as reduce barriers that inhibit efficient price transmission between markets.

Keywords: Structural Break; ARDL-ECM Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:espost:342851

DOI: 10.59072/rper.vi74.757

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