Populists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the US Presidential Election of 1896

Barry Eichengreen, Michael Haines, Matthew Jaremski and David Leblang

A chapter in Research in Economic History, 2019, vol. 35, pp 91-131 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has new salience in the wake of the 2016 presidential contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of presidential voting in 1896, combining county-level returns with economic, financial, and demographic data. We show that Bryan did well where interest rates were high, railroad penetration was low, and crop prices had declined. We show that further declines in crop prices or increases in interest rates would have been enough to tip the Electoral College in Bryan’s favor. But to change the outcome, the additional changes would have had to be large.

Keywords: Populists; presidential election of 1896; political economy; interest rates; railways; counterfactuals; N11; D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:rehizz:s0363-326820190000035006

DOI: 10.1108/S0363-326820190000035006

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