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China Country Report

Yu Hao and Rong Han

Chapter 5 in Energy Outlook and Energy Saving Potential in East Asia 2016, pp 109-125 from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

Abstract: Sustained economic growth and increasing population in the East Asia Summit (EAS) region are the two major drivers responsible for the rise of doubling energy demand in 2013-2040. The increase of energy demand threatens energy security and the effort to curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. These common energy challenges will need to be addressed through concerted efforts, including collective measures and actions to rapidly develop and deploy energy efficiency and saving, high-efficient and low-emission coal-fired power plant technology, and nuclear safety, and to double the share of renewable energy to the overall energy mix for inclusive and sustainable development. The energy outlook and energy saving potential present the balance of energy best-mix based on each country's policy and targets, and predict the pattern of future energy consumption. In this regard, the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario was developed for each EAS economy, outlining future sectoral and economy-wide energy consumption assuming no significant changes in government policies. An Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) was set to examine the potential impact of additional energy efficiency goals, action plans, or policies that are being, or likely to be, considered. The difference between the BAU and the APS scenarios in both final and primary energy supply represents potential energy savings. The difference in CO2 emissions between the two scenarios represents the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The findings of this study would continue to set light towards policy implications for decision-making to ensure that the region could enjoy both economic growth and investment opportunities without compromising energy security and environmental problems resulting from rising CO2 emissions.

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