Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk Analysis Using GIS-Based Input Output Modeling

Sheree Pagsuyoin (), Joost Santos (), Gustavo Salcedo () and Christian Yip ()
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Sheree Pagsuyoin: University of Massachusetts-Lowell
Joost Santos: George Washington University
Gustavo Salcedo: University of Massachusetts-Lowell
Christian Yip: George Washington University

Chapter Chapter 15 in Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, 2019, pp 375-397 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Recent studies in the area of disaster risk management emphasize the increasing likelihood and adverse consequences of droughts. Droughts can have widespread severe impacts; for example, in 2016, the northeastern region of the United States experienced record levels of rainfall shortage, forcing regional government agencies to issue warnings and emergency advisories to the public. During drought events, the economic losses due to water shortage and government-mandated restriction measures create costly cascading effects due to the interconnected and interdependent nature of the economic sectors. Such sectors have different degrees of dependence on water, and often there is a lack of coordination in implementing sector-specific resilience measures, which makes the drought recovery management a complex and daunting task. Indeed, water is a critical resource and it is essential in producing a myriad number of goods and services in the economy. In the current chapter, the authors develop a new modeling framework for drought risk management by integrating spatial analysis and dynamic input-output modeling to better understand the direct and indirect effects of drought scenarios on interdependent sectors of a regional economy. A decision support tool that utilizes the geographic information systems (GIS) platform was also developed to perform the following functions: (1) model the time-varying impacts of drought scenarios on a regional economy, (2) simulate the responses of individual sectors throughout various stages of the drought recovery timeline, and (3) estimate the regional economic losses and potential benefits of implementing different categories of drought management policies. The utility of the integrated IO-GIS framework and decision support tool is demonstrated in a case study of the historic and widespread drought that occurred in the State of Massachusetts in 2016.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-16237-5_15

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