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Regional Science Research and the Practice of Regional Economic Forecasting: Less Is Not More

Dan Rickman

Chapter Chapter 8 in Regional Research Frontiers - Vol. 1, 2017, pp 135-149 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Accurately forecasting regional economies for periods beyond a few months requires more than simple trend extrapolation. The forces that affect regional economies continually alter recent trends in the data. In addition, consumers of regional forecasts seek an understanding of the forces that underlie recent trends, which can be used in making sound policy or financial decisions. This essay argues for a greater role for research in forecasting regional economies. The central thesis is that current regional forecasting efforts need to be improved and supplemented with insights from regional science research. Major research areas of focus include dependence between sectors, dependence between regions, identifying demand from supply, labor market closures, incorporating a housing sector, the importance of occupational structure, benchmarking regional forecasts, sub-state forecasting and analysis, and industry trend analysis.

Keywords: Housing Price; Employment Growth; Labor Demand; Regional Forecast; Natural Population Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:adspcp:978-3-319-50547-3_8

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-50547-3_8

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