Modelling Innovation Diffusion

Karmeshu and V. P. Jain

Chapter 4 in Innovative Behaviour in Space and Time, 1997, pp 64-74 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Diffusion of innovation occupies a central place as an instrument of social change. Numerous attempts have been made to model this phenomenon in disciplines such as economics, sociology, marketing, geography etc. Considerable research effort has been devoted to the mathematical modelling in the field, focusing mainly on temporal aspects of diffusion of innovations in the form of growth curves in a given social system. These models have been constructed within both deterministic and stochastic frameworks. Some of the recent modelling efforts have analyzed the process as an evolutionary phenomenon in the framework of self-organizing systems. Such models offer considerable insight into the dynamics of the success of an innovation in the form of niche acquisition and the self-reinforcing ’lock-in’ mechanism. The framework employed in these models makes it possible to enlarge the scope of enquiry by their ability to examine the critical phenomenon in the form of phase transformation characterizing take off and sustainability of an innovation. In this chapter we present a brief review of the literature in the field of mathematical modelling of temporal aspects of innovation diffusion.

Keywords: Technical Change; Innovation Diffusion; Technological Forecast; Social Diffusion; Mathematical Sociology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-60720-2_4

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