A Structural Time Series Approach to Forecasting the Space-Time Incidence of Infectious Diseases: Post-War Measles Elimination Programmes in the United States and Iceland

J. D. Logan and A. D. Cliff
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J. D. Logan: University of Cambridge
A. D. Cliff: University of Cambridge

Chapter 6 in Recent Developments in Spatial Analysis, 1997, pp 101-127 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract When the epidemiological history of the present century comes to be written, the outstanding success that historians will be able to record is the global eradication of smallpox. The complex story, which culminated in the last recorded natural case in October 1977, has been told by Fenner, Henderson, Arita, Jezek and Ladnyi (1988). That success has inevitably raised questions as to whether other infectious diseases can also be eradicated1. At the present time, WHO has eight diseases so targeted by the millenium — an original list of six (diphtheria, measles, poliomyelitis, whooping cough, neo-natal tetanus and tuberculosis) and two recent additions, hepatitis B and yellow fever.

Keywords: Mass Vaccination; Stochastic Trend; Measle Vaccination; Measle Case; Basic Structural Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-03499-6_6

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