Use Scenarios Instead of a Crystal Ball

Pekka Korhonen and Jyrki Wallenius
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Jyrki Wallenius: Aalto University School of Business

Chapter Chapter 13 in Making Better Decisions, 2020, pp 121-129 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Using crystal balls for fortune telling and clairvoyance was common in the Roman Empire and in the middle ages. This started changing in mid-1600s, when Pascal and Fermat started to collaborate. Their purpose was to develop a method to predict mathematical futures. In a series of letters to each other, Pascal and Fermat laid the foundation for modern probability (Devlin 2008). To deal with uncertainty (or risk), decision analysts have normally resorted to probabilities.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-49459-9_13

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