Decision and Forecast: The Cassandra Paradox

Christoph E. Mandl
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Christoph E. Mandl: University of Vienna, Mandl, Lüthi & Partner

Chapter 4 in Managing Complexity in Social Systems, 2019, pp 31-38 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Evolution has equipped us with the capacity to predict—at least short term. When we successfully catch a ball, we have predicted its path and moved accordingly to be at the right place at the right time. When we overtake a car while another car approaches, we have predicted the feasibility of our maneuver. When we play pool, we not only predict the paths of balls, but we decide which prediction we prefer and use the cue to execute the decision. We are pretty good at these types of predictions. Thus, when we make decisions, we base them one way or another on predictions. Not all living beings do that. Purposeful behavior may be predictive, or it may be non-predictive, notes Rosenblueth (1943):

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-01645-6_4

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