Epidemics: Out of Control

Christoph E. Mandl ()
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Christoph E. Mandl: University of Vienna

Chapter Chapter 21 in Managing Complexity in Social Systems, 2023, pp 221-230 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Epidemics always evolve with the same patternPattern. The first infections start undetected, then infections grow exponentially, then the exponential growthExponential growth slows down eventually reaching a peak and after the peak the patternPattern of shrinking is mirroring the pattern of growth. EpidemicsEpidemics are presumably as old as civilization. The oldest documented one is the Plague of AthensPlague of Athens in 430 BC which killed around one-quarter of the population. The most recent ones, particularly tuberculosis and HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS are well documented and show the typical dynamical patternPattern of exponential growth first and exponential decrease subsequently. Then came COVID-19COVID-19. What was completely new was the real-time availability of data and the speed of COVID-19’s spread. Any disease with a growth rate of more than 10% per day—a doubling time of less than 8 days—is a nightmare when attempting to control it. Long delayLong delay relative to the growthGrowth rate—latencyLatency—became a decisive issue. OvershootOvershoot, i.e., more and stricter measures than necessary, is a typical behavior when effects of measures are only noticeable with delay. Like the computer virus ILoveYou, COVID-19 spreads out of control.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30222-0_21

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