Reference Class Forecasting

Mario Vanhoucke
Additional contact information
Mario Vanhoucke: Ghent University

Chapter Chapter 9 in The Illusion of Control, 2023, pp 155-178 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter summarises the results of three studies using the reference class forecasting technique on empirical project data. Each project control method from the previous chapters focused on forecasting the time and costs of ongoing projects but rarely used past historical projects. The reference class forecasting is specially designed for estimating a project’s expected time and costs by explicitly taking project-specific characteristics of historical project data into account. It will be shown that this technique yields promising results and can therefore be perfectly combined with some methods from the previous chapters. Such a hybrid method can significantly increase the overall forecasting accuracy of projects.

Keywords: Reference class forecasting; Project similarity; Hybrid forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-31785-9_9

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783031317859

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-31785-9_9

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Management for Professionals from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().