The Role of the Scenario and Its Re-assessment

Bruce Garvey and Adam D. M. Svendsen
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Bruce Garvey: Strategy Foresight Limited
Adam D. M. Svendsen: Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC/FHS)

Chapter Chapter 13 in Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence, 2024, pp 271-284 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter further interrogates what scenarios are, as well as further parsing the role and value of engaging in scenario planning processes. Alongside detailing strengths and advantages, a number of observed current scenario planning process weaknesses and limitations are charted, notably the frequent adoption of 2×2 matrix approaches, which often generate merely 4 different scenarios overall. A major contention this chapter raises pivots around the key question of: Are detailed scenarios worth the effort, if reduced to just 4? It further asks: Is adopting that approach to scenarios an oversimplification and extended abstraction, which fails to adequately capture the complexities involved at their fullest and dynamically enough? Also a greater role for continuously updating data and intelligence input into overall scenario planning processes is equally advocated throughout, again underscoring the importance of Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) and its conduct for constantly upgrading responses and solutions.

Keywords: Scenarios; Scenario planning; Strategic Options Analysis (SOA); Foresight Intelligence (FORINT); 2×2 matrix; Scenario planning advantages and weaknesses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-66115-0_13

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-66115-0_13

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