The Process of Risk Analysis and Decision-Making in Real Estate Development Projects

Akın Öztürk () and Harun Tanrıvermiş ()
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Akın Öztürk: Ankara University, Department of Real Estate Development and Management, Faculty of Applied Sciences
Harun Tanrıvermiş: Ankara University, Department of Real Estate Development and Management, Faculty of Applied Sciences

A chapter in Understanding Türkiye’s Real Estate Markets, 2026, pp 495-530 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter examines the integration of risk analysis and decision-making into real estate development projects, highlighting the growing importance of data-driven and systematic methods amid increasing complexity and uncertainty. Based on a comprehensive review of existing literature and field research with leading construction firms, this chapter demonstrates how Decision Support Systems (DSS) enhance developers’ ability to identify, assess, and manage project risks. Key risk factors are categorised at both company and project levels, including political instability, financing challenges, site selection, and development delays. Different risk assessment and decision-making techniques are examined, such as scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and fuzzy logic. Results indicate a prevalent lack of systematic risk management in the real estate industry, despite widespread recognition of its importance. The chapter concludes by underscoring the need to combine risk analysis with DSS to enable informed, strategic, and sustainable decision-making, and advocates for institutional backing, data transparency, and the cultivation of specialised human resources.

Keywords: Risk analysis; Decision-making; Real estate development; DSS; Uncertainty; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-032-13297-0_23

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-13297-0_23

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