Long-Term Projections for Commodity Prices—The Crude Oil Price Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Thomas Schwarz (), Hans-Joachim Lenz and Wilhelm Dominik
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Thomas Schwarz: Technische Universität Berlin
Hans-Joachim Lenz: Freie Universität Berlin
Wilhelm Dominik: Technische Universität Berlin

A chapter in Operations Research Proceedings 2017, 2018, pp 81-87 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Long-term projections for commodity prices are a key challenge in science as well as in business environment. This paper proposes a new mathematical approach for future projections of prices for time horizons larger than 10 years using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). The DBN approach is verified at the crude oil price example.

Keywords: Dynamic Bayesian networks; Time-sliced Bayesian networks; Scenario technique; Long-term forecast; Commodity pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-319-89920-6_12

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-89920-6_12

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