A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia

Sergey Smirnov

A chapter in Business Cycles in BRICS, 2019, pp 347-361 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Available composite cyclical indicators for Russia are surveyed, and their components are enumerated and analyzed. The aims, guiding concepts, and approaches of the newly established Russian Economic Cycle Dating Committee are also described. All the currently available monthly composite leading indices (CLIs) are tested against the most recent cyclical turning points for their capacity to provide a timely alarm signal, especially about an impending recession. It is shown that experts’ informal judgments about Russia’s future economic trajectory remain more informative than findings derived from formal empirical rules. This suggests that there is some room for improvement of the Russian CLIs, and additional efforts should be made to construct better cyclical indicators for Russia.

Keywords: Composite Leading Indicator (CLIs); Cyclical Indicators; Data Committee; Cycle RUSSIAN; Business Tendency Surveys (BTS) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-319-90017-9_21

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319900179

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_21

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Societies and Political Orders in Transition from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().