Approach and Methodology

Ingo Wieck (), Martin Streichfuss (), Thorsten Klaas-Wissing () and Wolfgang Stölzle ()
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Ingo Wieck: Transportation Competence Center
Martin Streichfuss: Transportation Competence Center
Thorsten Klaas-Wissing: University of St. Gallen
Wolfgang Stölzle: University of St. Gallen

Chapter Chapter 4 in Switchpoints for the Future of Logistics, 2012, pp 15-19 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Some developments are known as structural breaks: developments that occur without any significant warning. On the other hand, most “unexpected” developments turn out to have been expected by at least some individuals whose opinions never got a hearing. We conducted this study in order to identify and assess the switchpoints that will shape the future of the Logistics industry. Interviews with experts enabled us to identify a long list of potential switchpoints. The findings of these interviews were then validated against insights gleaned from published studies. The next step was a workshop at which experts singled out parameters that merit closer analysis. They based their evaluation on (a) uncertainties surrounding existing forecasts and estimates and (b) their perceived importance to the Logistics industry. The final step was an online survey in which 154 participants contributed their assessments and comments.

Keywords: Logistics; Switchpoints; Strategic planning; Scenario technique; Delphi; Forecasting; Convergence of opinions; Opinion spread; Drivers; Survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:spbrcp:978-3-642-23493-4_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-23493-4_4

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