Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

Rafał Weron and Ingve Simonsen
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Ingve Simonsen: NTNU

A chapter in Practical Fruits of Econophysics, 2006, pp 215-219 from Springer

Abstract: Summary We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.

Keywords: Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function; Sandpile Model; Power Transmission Network; System Blackout; Bulk Power System (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Working Paper: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-4-431-28915-9_39

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DOI: 10.1007/4-431-28915-1_39

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