Economics at your fingertips  

Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions

Rafał Weron and Ingve Simonsen
Additional contact information
Ingve Simonsen: The Norwegian University of Science & Technology

Risk and Insurance from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter- occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.

Keywords: blackout; risk; fat-tailed distribution; power grid (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 5 pages
Date: 2005-10-08
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 5 , 3 . To appear in: H. Takayasu (ed.), Proceedings of the 3rd Nikkei Econophysics Symposium, Springer-Tokyo, 2005/2006
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
Chapter: Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Risk and Insurance from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ().

Page updated 2023-11-02
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpri:0510001