Handling Uncertainty in Engineered Systems

Azad M. Madni () and A. Terry Bahill ()
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Azad M. Madni: University of Southern California
A. Terry Bahill: University of Arizona

Chapter 41 in Handbook of Systems Sciences, 2021, pp 1167-1199 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter identifies essential activities in the tradeoff study process that are responsible for addressing uncertainty and describes how to handle these uncertainties. These activities all involve human decision-making, which is the source of common mistakes arising from confirmation bias, severity amplifiers, and framing. This chapter explains how these activities are affected by mental mistakes such as biases, simplifying heuristics, cognitive illusions, emotions, fallacies, and psychological traps. This chapter presents examples for handling uncertainty by managing mistakes caused by uncertainty in the problem statement, the evaluation criteria, and weights of importance. It also shows how certainty factors and sensitivity analyzes can help handle uncertainty.

Keywords: Trade-off study; Trade study; Tradeoff study; Uncertainty; Systems engineering process; Decision analysis and resolution; Sensitivity analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-15-0720-5_22

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-15-0720-5_22

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