Bayesian Model Checking

Dana Kelly () and Curtis Smith ()
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Dana Kelly: Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
Curtis Smith: Idaho National Laboratory (INL)

Chapter Chapter 4 in Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, 2011, pp 39-50 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter discusses the Bayesian approach to checking the reasonableness of the model, which consists of both the aleatory model describing the occurrence of observable quantities, and the prior distribution for the parameters of the aleatory model. It focuses on the use of posterior predictive checks on the putative model. Approaches include direct use of the posterior predictive distribution and summary statistics derived from this distribution. Both graphical checks and quantitative checks are covered. The latter utilize a so-called Bayesian p-value.

Keywords: Posterior Distribution; Prior Distribution; Model Check; Credible Interval; Predictive Distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssrchp:978-1-84996-187-5_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-84996-187-5_4

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