Mission Reliability Comprehensive Evaluation Technique Based on Multi-stage Information

Haijing Song (), Ming Su and Zimeng Xu
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Haijing Song: Chinese Flight Test Establishment, Reliability Research Centre
Ming Su: Chinese Flight Test Establishment, Reliability Research Centre
Zimeng Xu: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, College of Civil Aviation

A chapter in Data-Driven Methods for Reliability and Safety Engineering: Applications in Industrial Systems, 2026, pp 27-36 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The traditional methods of mission reliability evaluation require too many test samples, as they use flight time as mission time. To solve this, a small-sample MR assessment technique is proposed in this study. Statistics and test design are combined, and Bayes’ theorem is applied to merge information from previous similar tests (prior distributions) with new test data (posterior distributions). A new method is also proposed to determine the minimum test time (T) and maximum allowed failures for fixed-duration tests. By applying the technique to real equipment, it illustrates that the MR evaluation accuracy and mission success rates have been improved, and the need for excessive testing has been reduced.

Keywords: Reliability evaluation; Minimum sample size; Parameter estimation; Bayesian estimation; Time censored test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssrchp:978-3-032-22873-4_3

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-22873-4_3

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