Systematic Managed Floating

Jeffrey Frankel

Chapter 5 in The Asian Monetary Policy Forum:Insights for Central Banking, 2021, pp 160-221 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg. But most of the remainder in practice also don’t obey such well-defined intermediate exchange rate regimes as target zones. This paper proposes to define an intermediate regime, to be called “systematic managed floating,” as an arrangement where the central bank regularly responds to changes in total exchange market pressure by allowing some fraction to be reflected as a change in the exchange rate and the remaining fraction to be absorbed as a change in foreign exchange reserves. An operational criterion for judging systematic managed floaters is a high correlation between exchange rate changes and reserve changes. The paper rejects the view that exchange rate regimes make no difference. In regressions to test effects on real exchange rates, we find that positive external shocks tend to cause real appreciation for most systematic managed-floaters; more strongly so for pure floaters; and not at all for most firm peggers. Two measures of exogenous external shocks are used: (i) for commodity-exporters, a country-specific index of global prices of the export commodities and (ii) for other Asian emerging market economies, the VIX.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Price Stability; Monetary Sovereignty; Monetary Policy Independence; Macroprudential Policies Financial Stability; Financial Volatility; Financial Globalization; Capital Mobility Trilemma; Dilemma; Small Open Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Exchange Rate Regime; Floating Exchange Rate; Pegged Exchange Rate; Real Exchange Rate; Nominal Exchange Rate; International Monetary System; Bond Markets; International Claims; Currency Market; Market Liberalization; Capital Control; Exchange Rate Intervention; Foreign Exchange Reserves; Dollar Hegemon; Dollar Dominance; International Payment System; Invoicing Currency; Integrated Policy Framework; Risk-on; Risk-off; Safe Assets; Global Financial Architecture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Related works:
Journal Article: Systematic Managed Floating (2019)
Working Paper: Systematic Managed Floating (2017)
Working Paper: Systematic Managed Floating (2017)
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