Analytical Tools: Arbitrage, mean reversion, risk arbitrage and the favorite-longshot bias

William T. Ziemba and Leonard C. MacLean

Chapter 6 in Dr Z's NFL Guidebook, 2018, pp 83-88 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: You can hedge bets as the odds change based on the current score and field position. My experience is that the sports betting market is more efficient than the financial markets, so therefore harder to beat. Of course, die hard efficient market types will like to forget that efficient markets has taken a severe beating in the 1987 and 2007-2009 stock market crashes. They simply cannot explain these events, nor the consistent high returns of some superior investors.

Keywords: NFL Players; Coaches; Strategies; Mean Reversion; Efficient Markets; Sports Enthusiasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Z21 Z23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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