The 2012-2013 Playoffs and the Super Bowl

William T. Ziemba and Leonard C. MacLean

Chapter 10 in Dr Z's NFL Guidebook, 2018, pp 129-147 from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

Abstract: In this chapter we trace the NFL playoffs leading to the 2013 super bowl on February 3rd in the New Orleans super dome. By tracing bets I made on Betfair, I hope to illustrate some general investment ideas and their use. These US football markets, which trade continuously on Betfair, have considerable mean reversion in scores and field position that gets quickly translated into odds. Hence there is risk arbitrage that helps you win the bets even if the team you start betting on actually loses the game. The goal is to make bets so that no matter which team wins, you make a profit. That means that (US odds on A)(US odds on B)>1 or (UK odds- -1 on A)(UK odds -1 on B)>1.

Keywords: NFL Players; Coaches; Strategies; Mean Reversion; Efficient Markets; Sports Enthusiasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Z21 Z23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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