Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Matthew Holt and Timo Teräsvirta

CREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University

Abstract: This paper examines trends in annual temperature data for the northern and southern hemisphere (1850-2010) by using variants of the shifting-mean autoregressive (SM-AR) model of González and Teräsvirta (2008). Univariate models are first fitted to each series by using the so called QuickShift methodology. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimates of a bivariate system of temperature equations are then obtained. The system is then used to perform formal tests of co-system in the hemispheric series. The results show there is evidence of co-shifting in the temperature data, most notably since the early 1980s.

Keywords: Co-breaking; Co-shifting; Hemispheric surface temperatures; Vector nonlinear model; Structural change; Shifting-mean vector autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C52 C53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2012-11-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aah:create:2012-54

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