Details about Timo Teräsvirta
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Short-id: pte1
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Working Papers
2019
- Comparing long monthly Chinese and selected European temperature series using the Vector Seasonal Shifting Mean and Covariance Autoregressive model
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University
- Comprehensive Testing of Linearity against the Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University 
Also in Working papers, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute (2019)
- Long monthly temperature series and the Vector Seasonal Shifting Mean and Covariance Autoregressive model
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University
2018
- Models with Multiplicative Decomposition of Conditional Variances and Correlations
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (1)
Also in NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho (2018) View citations (1)
- The Shifting Seasonal Mean Autoregressive Model and Seasonality in the Central England Monthly Temperature Series, 1772-2016
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University 
See also Journal Article in Econometrics and Statistics (2019)
- Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (1)
2017
- Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (2)
- Global Hemispheric Temperatures and Co–Shifting: A Vector Shifting–Mean Autoregressive Analysis
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University 
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2020)
- Modelling and forecasting WIG20 daily returns
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (2)
Also in NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho (2017) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics (2017)
- Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University
- Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (186)
Also in Research Paper Series, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney (2005) View citations (207) CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2017) View citations (29)
- Sir Clive Granger's contributions to nonlinear time series and econometrics
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University
2015
- Testing constancy of unconditional variance in volatility models by misspecification and specification tests
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University 
Also in NCER Working Paper Series, National Centre for Econometric Research (2015) 
See also Journal Article in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2016)
2014
- A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Testing the Adequacy of the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH Model
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2017)
- A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (1)
Also in NCER Working Paper Series, National Centre for Econometric Research (2014) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2016)
- Linearity and Misspecification Tests for Vector Smooth Transition Regression Models
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (37)
Also in LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) (2014) View citations (20)
- Specification, Estimation and Evaluation of Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models with Applications
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (29)
Also in LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) (2014) View citations (17)
2013
- Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area countries
ZEW policy briefs, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research View citations (3)
- Testing the Granger Noncausality Hypothesis in Stationary Nonlinear Models of Unknown Functional Form
Post-Print, HAL View citations (7)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2012) View citations (15) CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2008) View citations (7)
- Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (38)
2012
- Global Hemispheric Temperature Trends and Co–Shifting: A Shifting Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (2)
- Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (4)
Also in NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho (2012) View citations (8)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Empirical Finance (2014)
- Modelling conditional correlations of asset returns: A smooth transition approach
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2015)
- Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (3)
See also Chapter (2013)
2011
- Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations
NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho View citations (3)
Also in CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2011) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2014)
- Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2016)
- Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (9)
Also in CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2009) View citations (5)
- Forecasting performance of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007-2009
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2014)
- Modelling Volatility by Variance Decomposition
NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho View citations (16)
Also in CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University (2011) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2013)
- Nonlinear models for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (1)
2010
- Forecasting with nonlinear time series models
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (15)
2008
- Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (13)
Also in NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho (2008) View citations (30) SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2008) View citations (14)
- Modelling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (3)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2007) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Econometrics (2009)
- Multivariate GARCH models
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (22)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2008) View citations (68)
- Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series
CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (16)
Also in Research Paper Series, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney (2005) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Econometrics (2008)
- Positivity Constraints on the Conditional Variances in the Family of Conditional Correlation GARCH Models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Finance Research Letters (2008)
- Testing for Volatility Interactions in the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH Model
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Econometrics Journal (2009)
2007
- Modelling autoregressive processes with a shifting mean
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
Also in BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA (2006) View citations (3) Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia (2006) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (2008)
- Stylized Facts of Return Series, Robust Estimates, and Three Popular Models of Volatility
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Applied Financial Economics (2011)
2006
- An introduction to univariate GARCH models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (8)
- Testing constancy of the error covariance matrix in vector models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2007)
2005
- Determining the Number of Regimes in a Threshold Autoregressive Model Using Smooth Transition Autoregressions
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (17)
- Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
See also Chapter (2006)
- Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations
Research Paper Series, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney View citations (44)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2005) View citations (34)
- Simulation-based finite-sample linearity test against smooth transition models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2006)
- Testing parameter constancy in stationary vector autoregressive models against continuous change
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2009)
- Univariate nonlinear time series models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
2004
- A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications
Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings, Econometric Society 
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2003) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2006)
- Evaluating models of autoregressive conditional duration
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2006)
- Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination
Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (5)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2004) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2005)
- Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series and Three Popular Models of Volatility
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (17)
- The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
Also in Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute (2001) 
See also Journal Article in Econometrics Journal (2003)
2003
- Common factors in conditional distributions for Bivariate time series
FMG Discussion Papers, Financial Markets Group View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2006)
2002
- An Extended Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH Model and Its Fourth-Moment Structure
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Econometric Theory (2004)
- An application of the analogy between vector ARCH and vector random coefficient autoregressive models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (5)
- Building Neural Network Models for Time Series: A Statistical Approach
Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (10)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2002) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Forecasting (2006)
- Common Factors in Conditional Distributions
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC San Diego 
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (2002) View citations (2)
- Error correction in DHSY
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
2001
- Evaluating GARCH models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (2)
Also in Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute (1999) 
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2002)
- Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (69)
Also in Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute (2000) View citations (20)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2002)
- Statistical methods for modelling neural networks
Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)
2000
- A simple variable selection technique for nonlinear models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (8)
Also in SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes (1999) View citations (15)
- Forecasting with smooth transition autoregressive models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
- Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (8)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2003)
1999
- A General Framework for Testing the Granger Noncausality Hypothesis
G.R.E.Q.A.M., Universite Aix-Marseille III View citations (8)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (1999) View citations (9)
- Fourth Moment Structure of a Family of First-Order Exponential GARCH Models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (8)
Also in Research Paper Series, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney (1999) View citations (9)
- Higher-order dependence in the general Power ARCH process and a special case
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (7)
- Modelling Economic High-Frequency Time Series
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute View citations (3)
- Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (32)
See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2002)
- THE NET BARTER TERMS OF TRADE: A SMOOTH TRANSITION APPROACH
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Finance & Economics (2003)
1998
- A nonlinear time series model of El Niño
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (26)
- A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1999)
- Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (20)
- Nonlinear error-correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2001)
1997
- Fourth Moment Structure of the GARCH (p, q) Process
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Theory (1999)
- Properties of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1999)
- Properties of the Autocorrelation Function of Squared Observations for Second Order GARCH Processes under Two Sets of Parameter Constraints
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Journal of Time Series Analysis (1999)
- Statistical Properties of the Asymmetric Power ARCH Process
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (5)
- Testing Linearity against Nonlinear Moving Average Models
Umeå Economic Studies, Umeå University, Department of Economics
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (1996)
1996
- Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics 
Also in SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes (1996)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (1999)
- Modelling Economic Relationships with Smooth Transition Regressions
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
- Modelling the Demand for M3 in the Unified Germany
SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes View citations (3)
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (1996) View citations (9)
See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1998)
- Power Properties of Linearity Tests for Time Series
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (1996)
- Short-Term Forecasting of Industrial Production with Business Survey Data: Experience from Finland's Great Depression
Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy View citations (10)
- Smooth Transition Models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (1)
- Stylized Facts of Daily Return Series and the Hidden Markov Model
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (1998)
- Two Stylized Facts and the Garch (1,1) Model
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (4)
1995
- Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics View citations (9)
Also in SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes (1995) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (1999)
- Testing Parameter Constancy In Linear Models Against Stochastic Stationary Parameters
SFB 373 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
Also in SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics (1995)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1999)
- Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (1996)
- Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1996)
1991
- Forecasting the Outputof Finnish Forest Industries Using Business Survey Data
Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy
1989
- How to Use Preliminary Values in Forecasting the Monthly Index of Industrial Production?
Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy
- Labour Hoarding Over the Business Cycle: Testing the Quadratic Adjustment Cost Hypothesis
Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy
1988
- A Review of PC-GIVE: A Statistical Package for Econometric Modelling
Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy
- Testing Linearity of Economic Time Series against Cyclical A symmetry
Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy View citations (1)
1981
- Some results on improving the least squares estimation of linear models by mixed estimation
LIDAM Reprints CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)
1980
- The polynomial distributed lag revisited
LIDAM Reprints CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 
See also Journal Article in Empirical Economics (1980)
Journal Articles
2020
- Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis
Journal of Econometrics, 2020, 214, (1), 198-215 
See also Working Paper (2017)
2019
- The shifting seasonal mean autoregressive model and seasonality in the Central England monthly temperature series, 1772–2016
Econometrics and Statistics, 2019, 12, (C), 1-24 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2018)
2017
- A Lagrange multiplier test for testing the adequacy of constant conditional correlation GARCH model
Econometric Reviews, 2017, 36, (6-9), 599-621 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper (2014)
- Modelling and Forecasting WIG20 Daily Returns
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, 2017, 9, (3), 173-200 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2017)
- Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications
Econometric Reviews, 2017, 36, (4), 421-446 View citations (13)
2016
- A Smooth Transition Logit Model of The Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31, (4), 707-733 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper (2014)
- Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques
Econometric Reviews, 2016, 35, (8-10), 1753-1779 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper (2011)
- Testing constancy of unconditional variance in volatility models by misspecification and specification tests
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2016, 20, (4), 347-364 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2015)
2015
- Modeling Conditional Correlations of Asset Returns: A Smooth Transition Approach
Econometric Reviews, 2015, 34, (1-2), 174-197 View citations (20)
See also Working Paper (2012)
2014
- Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity With Nonstationary GARCH Equations
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2014, 32, (1), 69-87 View citations (15)
See also Working Paper (2011)
- Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009
International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 616-631 View citations (9)
See also Working Paper (2011)
- Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series
Journal of Empirical Finance, 2014, 25, (C), 15-35 View citations (28)
See also Working Paper (2012)
2013
- Forecasting the Finnish Consumer Price Inflation Using Artificial Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques
Finnish Economic Papers, 2013, 26, (1), 13-24 View citations (14)
- Modelling volatility by variance decomposition
Journal of Econometrics, 2013, 175, (2), 142-153 View citations (48)
See also Working Paper (2011)
2011
- Stylized facts of return series, robust estimates and three popular models of volatility
Applied Financial Economics, 2011, 21, (1-2), 67-94 View citations (18)
See also Working Paper (2007)
2010
- Sir Clive William John Granger, 1934-2009
New Zealand Economic Papers, 2010, 44, (2), 121-127
- Working With Clive Granger: Two Short Memories
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2010, 8, (2), 191-192
2009
- Modeling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2009, 7, (4), 373-411 View citations (60)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- Testing Parameter Constancy in Stationary Vector Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change
Econometric Reviews, 2009, 28, (1-3), 225-245 View citations (14)
See also Working Paper (2005)
- Testing for volatility interactions in the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model
Econometrics Journal, 2009, 12, (1), 147-163 View citations (38)
See also Working Paper (2008)
2008
- Modelling Autoregressive Processes with a Shifting Mean
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2008, 12, (1), 1-28 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper (2007)
- Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series
Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2008, 6, (2), 208-230 View citations (16)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- Positivity constraints on the conditional variances in the family of conditional correlation GARCH models
Finance Research Letters, 2008, 5, (2), 88-95 View citations (22)
See also Working Paper (2008)
2007
- Testing constancy of the error covariance matrix in vector models
Journal of Econometrics, 2007, 140, (2), 753-780 View citations (8)
See also Working Paper (2006)
2006
- A sequential procedure for determining the number of regimes in a threshold autoregressive model
Econometrics Journal, 2006, 9, (3), 472-491 View citations (16)
- A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications
Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 131, (1-2), 579-609 View citations (40)
See also Working Paper (2004)
- Building neural network models for time series: a statistical approach
Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 25, (1), 49-75 View citations (35)
See also Working Paper (2002)
- Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series
Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 132, (1), 43-57 View citations (39)
See also Working Paper (2003)
- Evaluating Models of Autoregressive Conditional Duration
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2006, 24, 104-124 View citations (52)
See also Working Paper (2004)
- Simulation‐based Finite Sample Linearity Test against Smooth Transition Models*
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2006, 68, (s1), 797-812 View citations (5)
See also Working Paper (2005)
2005
- Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination
International Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 21, (4), 755-774 View citations (78)
See also Working Paper (2004)
- Reply
International Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 21, (4), 781-783
2004
- AN EXTENDED CONSTANT CONDITIONAL CORRELATION GARCH MODEL AND ITS FOURTH-MOMENT STRUCTURE
Econometric Theory, 2004, 20, (5), 904-926 View citations (42)
See also Working Paper (2002)
2003
- The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series
Econometrics Journal, 2003, 6, (1), 79-98 View citations (31)
See also Working Paper (2004)
- The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2003, 8, (1), 81-97 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper (1999)
- Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2003, 21, (1), 104-21 View citations (96)
See also Working Paper (2000)
2002
- Evaluating GARCH models
Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 110, (2), 417-435 View citations (92)
See also Working Paper (2001)
- Long memory and nonlinear time series
Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 110, (2), 105-112 View citations (11)
- MODELING ASYMMETRIES AND MOVING EQUILIBRIA IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002, 6, (2), 202-241 View citations (103)
See also Working Paper (1999)
- MOMENT STRUCTURE OF A FAMILY OF FIRST-ORDER EXPONENTIAL GARCH MODELS
Econometric Theory, 2002, 18, (4), 868-885 View citations (53)
- SMOOTH TRANSITION AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS — A SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Econometric Reviews, 2002, 21, (1), 1-47 View citations (461)
See also Working Paper (2001)
2001
- INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE: NONLINEAR MODELING OF MULTIVARIATE MACROECONOMIC RELATIONS
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2001, 5, (4), 461-465 View citations (1)
- Non-linear error correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, (3), 277-288 View citations (22)
See also Working Paper (1998)
1999
- A simple nonlinear time series model with misleading linear properties
Economics Letters, 1999, 62, (2), 161-165 View citations (119)
See also Working Paper (1998)
- Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1999, 14, (4), 359-78 View citations (44)
See also Working Paper (1996)
- FOURTH MOMENT STRUCTURE OF THE GARCH(p,q) PROCESS
Econometric Theory, 1999, 15, (6), 824-846 View citations (48)
See also Working Paper (1997)
- Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1999, 14, (5), 511-25 View citations (49)
See also Working Paper (1995)
- Properties of moments of a family of GARCH processes
Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 92, (1), 173-192 View citations (114)
See also Working Paper (1997)
- Properties of the Autocorrelation Function of Squared Observations for Second‐order Garch Processes Under Two Sets of Parameter Constraints
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1999, 20, (1), 23-30 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (1997)
- Testing parameter constancy in linear models against stochastic stationary parameters
Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 90, (2), 193-213 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper (1995)
1998
- Comments on N. R. Ericsson, D. F. Hendry and K.M. Prestwich, “The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993”
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1998, 100, (1), 325-334
- Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1998, 80, (3), 399-409 View citations (39)
See also Working Paper (1996)
- Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1998, 13, (3), 217-244 View citations (114)
See also Working Paper (1996)
1997
- The International Institute of Forecasters Award for the Best Forecasting Paper
International Journal of Forecasting, 1997, 13, (4), 591-592
1996
- Power Properties of Linearity Tests for Time Series
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 1996, 1, (1), 1-10 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper (1996)
- Short-term forecasting of industrial production with business survey data: experience from Finland's great depression 1990-1993
International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (3), 373-381 View citations (9)
- Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, (4), 735-63 View citations (115)
See also Working Paper (1995)
- Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models
Journal of Econometrics, 1996, 74, (1), 59-75 View citations (409)
See also Working Paper (1995)
1995
- Modelling Nonlinearity in U.S. Gross National Product 1889-1987
Empirical Economics, 1995, 20, (4), 577-97 View citations (1)
- Professor Clive W.J. Granger: An interview for the International Journal of Forecasting
International Journal of Forecasting, 1995, 11, (4), 585-590
1994
- Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change
Journal of Econometrics, 1994, 62, (2), 211-228 View citations (217)
- The combination of forecasts using changing weights
International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (1), 47-57 View citations (56)
1993
- POWER OF THE NEURAL NETWORK LINEARITY TEST
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1993, 14, (2), 209-220 View citations (9)
1992
- Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1992, 7, (S), S119-36 View citations (505)
1990
- Use of preliminary values in forecasting industrial production
International Journal of Forecasting, 1990, 6, (4), 463-468 View citations (1)
1988
- Formation of Firms' Production Decisions in Finnish Manufacturing Industries
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1988, 3, (2), 125-37
1987
- The extended Stein procedure for simultaneous model selection and parameter estimation
Journal of Econometrics, 1987, 35, (2-3), 375-391 View citations (1)
- Usefulness of proxy variables in linear models with stochastic regressors
Journal of Econometrics, 1987, 36, (3), 377-382 View citations (2)
1985
- MINK AND MUSKRAT INTERACTION:A STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS
Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1985, 6, (3), 171-180
1982
- Underestimation of mean square error matrix in misspecified linear models
Journal of Econometrics, 1982, 18, (2), 281-284
1980
- The Polynomial Distributed Lag Revisited
Empirical Economics, 1980, 5, (2), 69-81
See also Working Paper (1980)
1976
- A Note on Bias in the Almon Distributed Lag Estimator
Econometrica, 1976, 44, (6), 1317-21
- Forecasting the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Finland: A box-Jenkins approach
European Economic Review, 1976, 8, (4), 349-369
Books
2010
- Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series
OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press View citations (50)
1993
- Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships
OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press View citations (249)
Edited books
2006
- Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series
Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press
2000
- Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series
Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (2)
Chapters
2013
- Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks
Chapter 4 in Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, 2013, pp 61-94 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2012)
2006
- Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models
Elsevier View citations (11)
See also Working Paper (2005)
1993
- Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle
A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 1993, pp 311-326 View citations (19)
1986
- Aspects of modelling nonlinear time series
Chapter 48 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1986, vol. 4, pp 2917-2957 View citations (4)
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