EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Working Paper 197 - Estimating the Economic Cost of Fragility in Africa

Mthuli Ncube () and Basil Jones
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Zorobabel Tamoué Bicaba ()

Working Paper Series from African Development Bank

Abstract: A fiscally constrained global environment has heightened the interest of development partners in the economic cost of fragility. State fragility and civil war have become a central topic in the development debate and Africa is a continent particularly affected by fragility. A stronger engagement with fragile states is one of three areas of special emphasis in the African Development Bank’s Ten Year Strategy 2014-2022.This paper evaluates and quantifies the economic costs of fragility using two approaches: a simple convergence model and synthetic counterfactual approach. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use the synthetic counterfactual approach to evaluate the economic costs of fragility in Africa. Our estimations show that fragile states lose an opportunity to double their initial GDP per capita after a period of 20 years. Second, the synthetic counterfactual shows that in 20 years of fragility, the cumulative economic cost of fragility in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Burundi amounted toUS$31.8 billion, US$16.0 billion and US$12.8 billion respectively. Our simulations suggest, for example, that if Central Africa Republic, Liberia and Sierra Leone had growth rates equivalent to those of the synthetic country in the model in 2010, it would take 34.5 years,19.2 years and 20.8 years respectively to recover the level of GDP per capita had these countries not been exposed to fragility.

Date: 2014-03-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Docume ... gility_in_Africa.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:adb:adbwps:2105

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from African Development Bank 15 Avenue du Ghana P.O.Box 323-1002 Tunis-Belvedère, Tunisia. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Adeleke Oluwole Salami ().

 
Page updated 2022-01-20
Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:2105