Information Rigidity and Correcting Inefficiency in USDA’s Commodity Forecasts

Stephen MacDonald and Olga Isengildina-Massa
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Olga Isengildina Massa

No 124890, 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This study investigates the rationality of monthly revisions in annual forecasts of supply, demand and price for U.S. corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat, published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates over 1985/86-2010/11. The findings indicate that USDA's forecast revisions are not independent across months, and that forecasts are typically smoothed. Adjustment for smoothing in a subset of forecasts (1998/2000-2010/11) showed mixed results: significant improvements for soybean use forecasts, cotton exports, and a broad cross-section of forecasts published in October. However, accuracy deteriorated in some cases, particularly for late-season preliminary data revisions.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 2
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea12:124890

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124890

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