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Forecasts and Adaptation

Jeffrey Shrader

No 170626, 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: For many environmental problems, economics adaptation will likely be the primary means by which potential damages are avoided. How and by how much humans adapt to environmental risks, therefore, is a question of paramount importance. This paper uses a novel dataset documenting the introduction of forecasts of an important, global driver of climate variation—El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—to derive the first well identified estimates of total adaptation in a climate exposed industry. The primary results indicate that for the setting under consideration, risks from ENSO events can be almost entirely mitigated given 3 months of advance warning. This adaptation comes from a combination of daily and annual actions. In sum, the results point both to the ability for individuals in some settings to mitigate their own environmental risks given high quality information.

Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-res
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea14:170626

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170626

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