MODELLING LONG-TERM COMMODITIES: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINE INDUSTRY WITHIN A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

Michela Cutts, Sanri Reynolds, Ferdinand H. Meyer and Nick Vink

No 37324, Working Papers from American Association of Wine Economists

Abstract: Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture, Western Cape and the Universities of Pretoria and Stellenbosch.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2007-12
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37324/files/AAWE_WP12.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Modeling Long-term Commodities: the Development of a Simulation Model for the South African Wine Industry within a Partial Equilibrium Framework* (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aawewp:37324

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37324

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