Fruit production forecasting by neuro-fuzzy techniques

George S. Atsalakis and Ioanna G. Atsalakis

No 57680, 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Neuro-fuzzy techniques are finding a practical application in many fields such as in model identification and forecasting of linear and non-linear systems. This paper presents a neuro-fuzzy model for forecasting the fruit production of some agriculture products (olives, lemons, oranges, cherries and pistachios). The model utilizes a time series of yearly data. The fruit forecasting is based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). ANFIS uses a combination of the least-squares method and the backprobagation gradient descent method to estimate the optimal food forecast parameters for each year. The results are compared to those of an Autoregressive (AR) model and an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA).

Keywords: Agricultural Finance; Crop Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaa113:57680

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.57680

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