Agricultural Bankers’ Expectations of Farmland Price Changes and Asset Price Bubbles

Todd Kuethe (), David Oppedahl and Todd Hubbs

No 290464, 165th Seminar, April 4-5, 2019, Berlin, Germany from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: When the market price of an asset exceeds its fundamental value, rational expectations suggest that agents should expect market prices to fall. This equilibrating relationship is tested using an unbalanced panel of responses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's quarterly Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1993Q1 - 2018Q2. Empirical results suggest that agricultural bankers expect farmland prices to increase, even when current market prices cannot be justified by underlying fundamentals. Thus, agricultural bankers' short-term farmland price expectations are not consistent with eficient farmland markets. This is the first study of direct, disaggregated farmland price expectations.

Keywords: Land; Economics/Use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2019-07-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaa165:290464

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.290464

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