The Predictive Role of Counterfactuals

Alfredo Di Tillio, Itzhak Gilboa and Larry Samuelson

No 275754, Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers from Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are con- structed and justied. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also al- lows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

Keywords: Financial; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2011-02
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Related works:
Journal Article: The predictive role of counterfactuals (2013)
Working Paper: The predictive role of counterfactuals (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:isfiwp:275754

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275754

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