Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level
Matthew Diersen ()
No 37600, 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri from NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
Higher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.
Keywords: Agricultural; Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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