HYPOTHESIS TESTING USING NUMEROUS APPROXIMATING FUNCTIONAL FORMS

Bailey Norwood (), Jayson Lusk and Peyton Ferrier ()

No 18964, 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri from NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a range over which a parameter should lie within a degree of confidence. If it is true that, on average, composite forecasts are more accurate than a single model's forecast, it might also be true that hypothesis tests using information from numerous models are, on average, more accurate in the sense of lower Type I and Type II errors than hypothesis tests using a single model.

Keywords: Research; Methods/; Statistical; Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19
Date: 2001
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ncrone:18964

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18964

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