A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

Maggie E.C. Jones, Morten ßrregaard Nielsen and Michal Popiel

No 274652, Queen's Economics Department Working Papers from Queen's University - Department of Economics

Abstract: We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relation- ship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conser- vative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.

Keywords: Financial Economics; Political Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51
Date: 2014-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
Journal Article: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
Working Paper: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
Working Paper: A Fractionally Cointegrated Var Analysis Of Economic Voting And Political Support (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:quedwp:274652

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274652

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