A Fractionally Cointegrated Var Analysis Of Economic Voting And Political Support
Maggie Jones (),
Morten Nielsen () and
Michal Popiel ()
No 1326, Working Paper from Economics Department, Queen's University
We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.
Keywords: Economic voting; fractional cointegration; political economy; vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1326.pdf First version 2014 (application/pdf)
Journal Article: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
Working Paper: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qed:wpaper:1326
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Paper from Economics Department, Queen's University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mark Babcock ().