Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth

Michael Clements

No 269880, Economic Research Papers from University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Abstract: We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments of the internal consistency of the probability forecasts of a decline in real output and the histograms for annual real output growth, and on the relationship between the probability forecasts and the point forecasts of quarterly output growth.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20
Date: 2008-09-22
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Working Paper: Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uwarer:269880

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269880

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