Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics
We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments of the internal consistency of the probability forecasts of a decline in real output and the histograms for annual real output growth, and on the relationship between the probability forecasts and the point forecasts of quarterly output growth.
Keywords: Rounding; probability forecasts; probability distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... s/2008/twerp_869.pdf
Working Paper: Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:869
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Margaret Nash ().