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Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth

Michael Clements

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments of the internal consistency of the probability forecasts of a decline in real output and the histograms for annual real output growth, and on the relationship between the probability forecasts and the point forecasts of quarterly output growth.

Keywords: Rounding; probability forecasts; probability distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:869

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