Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

Michael Clements

No 270629, Economic Research Papers from University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Abstract: Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconÖdent at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons.

Keywords: Financial; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2012-09-05
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uwarer:270629

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270629

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