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Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth

Michael Clements

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. JEL classification: C53

Keywords: Subjective uncertainty; realized uncertainty; output growth forecasts; inflation forecasts. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Date: 2012
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