Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis?
Arnaud Deseau
No 2326, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France
Abstract:
The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate, by estimating the speed of convergence for a wide range of economies and a large part of the Malthusian era. I build a simple Malthusian growth model and derive the speed of convergence to the steady state. A calibration exercise for the English Malthusian economy reveals a relatively weak Malthusian trap, or weak homeostasis, with a half-life of 112 years. I then use β-convergence regressions and historical panel data on per capita income and population to empirically estimate the speed of convergence for a large set of countries. I find consistent evidence of weak homeostasis, with the mode of half-lives around 120 years. The weak homeostasis pattern is stable from the 11th to the 18th century. However, I highlight significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap, with some economies converging significantly faster or slower than others.
Keywords: Convergence; Homeostasis; Malthusian trap; Preventive checks; marriage; fertility; Malthusian model; Beta-convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 N1 N3 O1 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61 pages
Date: 2023-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo, nep-gro and nep-his
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Related works:
Journal Article: Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis? (2024) 
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023) 
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023) 
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2326
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