Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis?

Arnaud Deseau

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Abstract: The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate by estimating the speed of convergence for a panel of 9 preindustrial European economies over a long period of time (14th–18th century). The analysis relies on a calibrated Malthusian model for England and -convergence regressions. I find evidence of significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap between preindustrial European economies. The strongest estimated Malthusian trap is in Sweden, with a half-life of 20 years. The weakest estimated Malthusian trap is in England, with a half-life of about 230 years. This implies that some preindustrial economies were able to experience prolonged variations in their standards of living after a shock, while still being subject to Malthusian stagnation in the long run.

Keywords: Convergence; Homeostasis; Malthusian trap; Preventive checks; Positive checks; Malthusian model; Beta-convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo, nep-gro and nep-his
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04828757v1
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Published in Explorations in Economic History, 2024, 94, pp.101634. ⟨10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101634⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis? (2024)
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023)
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023)
Working Paper: Speed of Convergence in a Malthusian World: Weak or Strong Homeostasis? (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04828757

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101634

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