Foreign Troops, Local Economies: The Economic Effects of US Withdrawals from Germany

Johannes Kochems () and Jakob Schmidhäuser ()
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Johannes Kochems: University of Cologne
Jakob Schmidhäuser: ZEW Mannheim

No 413, ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series from University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany

Abstract: This paper analyzes the local economic impacts of troop deployments. We exploit variation from the historic large-scale US troop withdrawal from Germany triggered by the end of the Cold War, to estimate the effect on local labor markets and public finances. We use administrative data provided by the US Department of Defense to quantify the size of the troop withdrawal at the municipal level. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences estimator, we find negative effects on local labor markets: for each withdrawn US soldier, the number of local jobs decreases by 0.53. The decrease in economic activity results in a reduction of revenues which municipalities balance by lowering their expenditures, while increasing business and property tax multipliers. In individual-level analyses, we document that workers displaced by the closure of a US military base have persistently lower employment rates. Moreover, their daily wages remain around 9.2 percent lower fifteen years after the layoff. The negative impact on labor outcomes is particularly pronounced for women, older workers, and those employed in regions with more unfavorable initial labor market conditions.

Keywords: Military base closure; local labor markets; worker displacement; fiscal multipliers; spatial spillovers; public finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H56 H71 H72 J21 J23 J63 R11 R51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 78 pages
Date: 2026-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:413

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