Criticality Characteristics of Current Oil Price Dynamics

Stanislaw Drozdz, Jaroslaw Kwapien and Pawel Oswiecimka

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oil prices is associated with the decay of such a "super- bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oil price increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.

Date: 2008-08
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Published in Acta Physica Polonica A 114, 699-702 (2008)

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