An age structured demographic theory of technological change

Jean-Francois Mercure ()

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of social and industrial dynamics. The quantitative study of sustainability transitions requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology substitution. Many, if not most, contemporary modelling approaches for future technology pathways overlook most aspects of transitions theory, for instance dimensions of heterogenous investor choices, dynamic rates of diffusion and the profile of transitions. A significant body of literature however exists that demonstrates how transitions follow S-shaped diffusion curves or Lotka-Volterra systems of equations. This framework is used ex-post since timescales can only be reliably obtained in cases where the transitions have already occurred, precluding its use for studying cases of interest where nascent innovations in protective niches await favourable conditions for their diffusion. In principle, scaling parameters of transitions can, however, be derived from knowledge of industrial dynamics, technology turnover rates and technology characteristics. In this context, this paper presents a theory framework for evaluating the parameterisation of S-shaped diffusion curves for use in simulation models of technology transitions without the involvement of historical data fitting, making use of standard demography theory applied to technology at the unit level. The classic Lotka-Volterra competition system emerges from first principles from demography theory, its timescales explained in terms of technology lifetimes and industrial dynamics. The theory is placed in the context of the multi-level perspective on technology transitions, where innovation and the diffusion of new socio-technical regimes take a prominent place, as well as discrete choice theory, the primary theoretical framework for introducing agent diversity.

Date: 2013-04, Revised 2014-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published in Journal of Evolutionary Economics (2015) 25:787-820

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.3602 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: An age structured demographic theory of technological change (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1304.3602

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().