Option pricing, Bayes risks and Applications

Yannis G. Yatracos

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A statistical decision problem is hidden in the core of option pricing. A simple form for the price C of a European call option is obtained via the minimum Bayes risk, R_B, of a 2-parameter estimation problem, thus justifying calling C Bayes (B-)price. The result provides new insight in option pricing, among others obtaining C for some stock-price models using the underlying probability instead of the risk neutral probability and giving R_B an economic interpretation. When logarithmic stock prices follow Brownian motion, discrete normal mixture and hyperbolic Levy motion the obtained B-prices are "fair" prices. A new expression for the price of American call option is also obtained and statistical modeling of R_B can be used when pricing European and American call options.

Date: 2013-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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