Risk aggregation and stochastic claims reserving in disability insurance

Boualem Djehiche and Bj\"orn L\"ofdahl

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Abstract: We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving and risk aggregation for large portfolios. Further, we derive a partial differential equation for moments of present values. Moreover, we show how statistical multi-factor intensity models can be approximated by one-factor models, which allows for solving the PDEs very efficiently. Finally, we give a numerical example where moments of present values of disability annuities are computed using finite difference methods and Monte Carlo simulations.

Date: 2014-01, Revised 2014-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias and nep-rmg
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Risk aggregation and stochastic claims reserving in disability insurance (2014)
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