Network Risk and Forecasting Power in Phase-Flipping Dynamical Networks

B. Podobnik, A. Majdandzic, C. Curme, Z. Qiao, Wei-Xing Zhou, H. E. Stanley and B. Li

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Abstract: In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes and links fail. We derive higher moments of the fractions of active nodes and active links, $f_n(t)$ and $f_{\ell}(t)$, and define two estimators to quantify the level of risk in a network. We find hysteresis in the correlations of $f_n(t)$ due to failures at the node level, and derive conditional probabilities for phase-flipping in networks. We apply our model to economic and traffic networks.

Date: 2014-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-net
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